12th November 2019
The preliminary GDP Q/Q read of +0.3% was a little below the +0.4% expected but the worse news came from the production readings in the manufacturing and industrial sectors which both contracted more than forecast, with month-on-month falls of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. While the positive GDP reading means that the UK has managed to stave off a recession for another year there is little doubt that the economy is spluttering, with political uncertainty and a slowdown in global activity clearly taking their toll. The pound jumped 0.6% on Monday, hitting a six-month high versus the euro and posted its biggest daily rise in nearly a month against the greenback after the Brexit Party said it would not contest previously Conservative held seats in the UK’s election. The EUR/ USD pair has managed to recover some ground this Monday, although the pair remains depressed a handful of pips above the 1.1000 level. The market’s mood took a turn to the worse amid growing uncertainty around a US-China trade deal. Nevertheless, and despite being usually seen as a safe-heaven, the greenback edged lower against most major rivals, correcting its overbought conditions after last week’s rally. This Tuesday, the UK will publish its latest employment data. The ILO unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9% in September, while average earnings in the three-month September are also seen unchanged, attention will be on the German November ZEW Survey.Yesterday’s Market
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