13th November 2019
The unemployment data failed to impress traders; the UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) came in at 3.8% below consensus of 3.9% in September. The Claimant Count Change came in at 33K, topping forecasts of 21.3K in October. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr.) came in at 3.6%, below forecasts of 3.8% in September while the Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr.) came in at 3.6% below forecasts of 3.8. German ZEW business expectations rose noticeably in the month of November. The index rose to -2.1 from -22.8, coming above consensus expectations, which had expected a rise to -13. The reasons for the much better assessment of business expectations are clear: the leading indicators seem to be stabilizing. For instance, new orders for German industry are now trending sideways; this applies to orders from abroad. It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone calendar. Economic data due out of the Eurozone includes finalized October inflation figures out of Germany and the Eurozone’s industrial production numbers for September. We would expect the industrial production figures to have the greatest influence on the European majors. From the U.S, October inflation figures will likely have a muted impact ahead of FED Chair Powell’s Testimony scheduled late in the day. Any pickup in inflationary pressures would normally be considered negative for the broader market. With the FED in pause mode, however, the numbers would need to be quite dire to force another rate cut. On the geopolitical risk front, we can expect any chatter on trade and UK politics to also provide direction throughout the day. Yesterday’s Market
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