24/ 04/ 2017

Week Ahead | Emmanuel Macron to Face Off against Marine Le Pen

The week has started out with a mixed outlook given the French elections result hosting the expected outcome that comes as a coin with two sides and on a week with plenty of risk events ahead. 

While the most likely and relatively market-friendly French presidential outcome of Macron facing, Le Pen has occurred, markets can't count a Macron victory given how close the polls are coming through and there still being plenty of time for Le Pen to rally up support for her anti-immigration and euro campaign until round two on May 7th. 

European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings will be the key events of the week, along with the first estimates for Q1 GDP growth in the US and the UK. 

20/ 04/ 2017

France decides

The dollar caught its breath in Asian trading on Thursday, holding above lows hit earlier this week wherein data had little impact, as markets are focused on the first round of France’s presidential election this Sunday. In what has basically become a 4-person race, the potential mix of the top two candidates will be key for the euro.

In the same way, Sterling consolidated after election surge on Tuesday after British Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early general election ahead of Brexit negotiations.

Calendar-wise, we have yet another session of empty UK docket, while investors gear up for the US Philly Fed manufacturing index and jobless claims to gauge next USD moves. However, the main risk event for cable is likely to be BOE Governor Carney's speeches in Washington later today.

19/ 04/ 2017

Euro & Pound on a roller coaster ride

The index is extending its weekly downtrend today, with the buck losing the most vs. the single currency and the British Pound, particularly after PM Theresa May called for early elections on June 8 at yesterday’s statement.

Meanwhile, we have a fairly light economic calendar, with only the Eurozone final CPI data on the cards. However, sentiment will be driven by politics, with the French and UK elections now expected to be the key determinants of next direction in the Euro and GBP respectively.

Later in the NA session, Fed’s Beige book will hog the limelight amid a data-quiet session.

18/ 04/ 2017

Euro & Pound gain key momentum ahead of US data

Volatility returned to Asia along with full markets, as the Easter-break finally ended. The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, stays under pressure during the first half of the week.

Heading into Europe, holiday-mode trading is expected to decrease, as the EUR traders now brace for the first round of the French elections scheduled this Sunday. Meanwhile, amid a data-quiet EUR calendar, attention turns towards the US economic releases, including the housing starts, building permits and industrial production.