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mask Week Ahead | ECB to Continue QE as Fed Cements its case for an Interest Rate Cut

15/ 07/ 2019

Week Ahead | ECB to Continue QE as Fed Cements its case for an Interest Rate Cut

The Euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as dollar was as pressured by expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at a monetary policy meeting later this month. Against a basket of other currencies, the dollar fell 0.1% to 97.004, posting its worst daily loss against the yen and Swiss franc in more than three weeks. The dollar briefly trimmed losses after U.S. data showed producer prices rose slightly in June, up 0.1% following a similar gain in May. On the other hand, sterling strengthened against dollar, as bets that BOE could raise rates supported sterling across the board. BOE official Gertjan Vlieghe said the central bank might need to cut rates almost to zero in the event of a no-deal Brexit and it was not clear how long it would take for them to rise again. Vlieghe also said that a scenario in which the BoE cuts rates “is more possible” than a scenario in which it raises rates.

It’s a big week ahead, with key stats, and geopolitical risk to provide the majors with direction through the week.

mask Euro & GBP Spikes Against Dovish Minutes from US, yet Powell's Testimony stays in Spotlight

11/ 07/ 2019

Euro & GBP Spikes Against Dovish Minutes from US, yet Powell's Testimony stays in Spotlight

The markets are receiving plenty of information to digest today with the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its June FOMC meeting which follows commentary from Chair Powell testified before yesterday morning. Leading FOMC members have raised concerns on weak job reports further putting pressure on the dollar causing a chaotic situation with tensions building up on Trade tensions. Euro rose above $1.12 against dollar on Wednesday,  bouncing off two-week lows, as Jerome Powell struck a downbeat tone in congressional testimony, saying trade uncertainties and concerns about the global outlook continued to exert pressure on the U.S. economy.

The greenback hit session lows versus the euro and yen after Powell’s comments, which reinforced expectations the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a decade at its next monetary policy meeting later this month. Sterling pound held near two years low against greenback yesterday, as better-than-expected readings on the British economy did little to lift the British currency .Growing fears of a no-deal Brexit under a new prime minister, and weak data in recent weeks, have raised fears that the Bank of England will have to reverse its relatively confident outlook on the British economy and join its global peers in starting to cut interest rates. Britain’s economy grew more than expected in May, helped by a rebound in car production after Brexit-related shutdowns,

While Powell follows Trump’s lead and takes a more dovish stance, U.S inflation figures could shift sentiment once more, ECB minutes are also due out.

mask Fed Powell did not crumble Under Pressure, Markets Embrace for FOMC and ECB Meeting

10/ 07/ 2019

Fed Powell did not crumble Under Pressure, Markets Embrace for FOMC and ECB Meeting

Dollar remains the strongest one for the week even though upside momentum is diminishing today. The single most important factor for Dollar’s next move is whether Fed would cut interest rate at this month’s meeting. A 50bps cut is basically priced out by the markets, but futures still indicate 100% chance of a 25bps cut. Hopefully, markets would finally get a clue from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony. The greenback could be given a strong boost should Powell suggest that a July cut is far from certain.

Euro dropped to a three-week low against a broadly stronger dollar on Tuesday, as investors re-assessed their expectations of how much the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this month. British pound feel towards its lowest levels in more than two years against dollar, as worsening economic outlook and rising fears about a no-deal Brexit under a new Prime Minister weight on Pound.

Most of the talk lately has been about the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, but equal weight should be on the Euro especially since the European Central Bank (ECB) meets on July 25, six days before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

mask Euro Loses Ground Against Dollar, Focus Shifts to Jerome Powell Speech

09/ 07/ 2019

Euro Loses Ground Against Dollar, Focus Shifts to Jerome Powell Speech

Euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as dollar continued its march after news of a stronger-than-expected increase in U.S. jobs in June scaled back traders' expectations of a sharp Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of July. Traders await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, which starts on Tuesday for clues about a rate decrease.

While sterling pound hovered near a six-month low against the dollar yesterday, as investors continued to bet on lower British interest rates and added to their short positions on the currency. As major central banks around the world including the Fed shift towards monetary policy easing, investors are betting that the Bank of England will follow suit. Last week it fueled investors’ expectations of a 25 basis point cut over the next 12 months, hurting the pound. Uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the European Union, as well as over who will become the new British prime minister and lead the country out of the bloc.

Trading in the currency markets are generally muted as focus remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which starts today. His comments with Trump’s bad judgement about US Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, will, hopefully, clear the picture on whether Fed will cut interest rates this month.

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