22/ 10/ 2019

Johnson faces perilous Brexit ratification after deal vote blocked

The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as contradictory headlines about whether Britain and the European Union were on the verge of agreeing a Brexit deal attracted sellers. In another volatile day of trading, financial markets remained hostage to news as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU negotiators raced against the clock to forge a withdrawal agreement before an EU summit on Thursday. Negotiators were struggling to clinch an 11th-hour deal, raising the chances that Johnson will have to seek an extension of the Oct. 31 deadline for Britain’s exit from the bloc.

Sterling rose against dollar on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for Brexit developments this week, after parliament forced Prime Minister Boris Johnson to write to the European Union to ask for a delay to Britain leaving the bloc. The pound remained within a whisker of its recent highs though as most market participants believed a no-deal Brexit was off the table.

Today will be a minor macroeconomic day as there is only ECB bank lending survey report, CAD Retail Sales & USD existing home sales. Japan Market is closed today.

21/ 10/ 2019

Week Ahead | Bullish Momentum Persists, Eyes on Key Brexit Vote

Sterling surged broadly last week after as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a new deal with EU on Brexit. It appeared that UK was on track to leave EU on October 31 in an orderly way. The development also took other European majors higher. However, uncertainty re-surfaced as the meaningful vote on the deal wasn’t held in the House of Commons on Saturday. Instead, Johnson is now forced to seek another Brexit extension by an amendment. Northern Ireland’s DUP also maintained its stance against the deal. Sterling might suffer some setback initially this week. Dollar suffered heavily selloff and ended as the weakest performing one, followed by Yen. Canadian Dollar was the third weakest as traders turned cautious ahead of elections. Australian Dollar was mixed after job data lowered chance of another imminent RBA cut.

It’s another big week for the global financial markets, Corporate earnings, Brexit, trade and economic data in Focus. It’s also Draghi’s last media show.

17/ 10/ 2019

CPI reports from GBP, EUR, & CAD along with US retail sales group

The euro gained against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after dismal U.S. retail sales data painted a gloomy picture of the economy and supported the case for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting that manufacturing-led weakness could be spreading to the broader economy. 

Sterling came off five-month highs against dollar on Wednesday as the European Union and Britain sought to avert a disorderly Brexit before an EU summit on Thursday. Hopes of a breakthrough lifted markets on Tuesday, but investors turned more cautious after looking for a deal during the night that never came. Conflicting reports about the ongoing talks triggered a series of sharp moves on the pound. Reports that Germany might use emergency measures to counter any market panic from a hard Brexit, such as banning bets on falling share prices, also weighed on morale.

The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as lingering worries about trade tensions between the United States and China and downbeat economic data weighed on greenback. 

16/ 10/ 2019

Sterling & Euro gains on Brexit Optimism

The euro gained against the U.S. dollar yesterday, after the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator said a deal with Britain over the terms of Britain’s departure was still possible this week. Hopes that a deal might be reached at the Oct. 17-18 EU summit drove euro higher. It fell on Monday as it became clear the two sides were still far apart. While Sterling rose against dollar, as growing probability of Brexit deadline boosted sterling. A news report showed that negotiators hoped an agreement would be reached by midnight on Tuesday. Investors are watching a make-or-break summit between Britain and the European Union on Thursday and Friday that will determine whether Britain is headed for a deal to leave the bloc on Oct. 31, a disorderly no-deal exit or a delay. The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, as fading optimism over the latest China-U.S. trade truce prompted traders to buy the greenback.

Brexit remains a key driver on the day as the EU Summit rapidly approaches. Eurozone trade data, U.S retail sales, and earnings will also influence.