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17/ 09/ 2019
The EUR/USD pair has traded with a heavy tone this Monday, settling at pre-ECB levels around 1.1000 at the end of the American session. The slump was driven by a risk-averse sentiment, triggered by weekend news, not only related to Europe.
The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.2398, weighed by renewed demand for the greenback in a risk-averse environment and discouraging Brexit headlines, although it later recovered to settle at around 1.2420.
16/ 09/ 2019
The dollar fell while safe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied on Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East tensions. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly at Iran.
Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and crucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine the rates outlook in the Antipodes. In the United States, investors who had begun trimming expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.
Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday. China’s premier on Monday said maintaining national economic growth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing.
Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Monday are likely to give further insight into the health of the world's second-largest economy.
12/ 09/ 2019
An exchange of olive branches between Washington and Beijing on trade pushed the dollar to a six-week high against the safe-haven yen on Wednesday and also supported the risk-sensitive currencies of China, Australia and South Korea. The world’s two largest economies granted concessions in their heated tariff dispute on Wednesday ahead of planned talks.
China exempted a basket of U.S. goods from its own tariffs while U.S. President Donald Trump said he would delay a scheduled tariff hike by two-weeks in October. With growth slowing, the ECB has all but promised more support for the economy in one of the most closely watched meetings in years.
The ECB is almost certain to cut rates, promise to keep rates low for longer and provide banks relief from the side effects of negative rates. Sterling also dipped after a Scottish court ruled on Wednesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s suspension of the British Parliament was unlawful, prompting immediate calls for lawmakers to return to work as the government and Parliament battle over the future of Brexit.
Focus for the remaining part of the week will remain around ECB Decisions, US Job Sector & Retail Sales figures.
11/ 09/ 2019
Fragile investor confidence supported the dollar and weakened the yen on Tuesday but currency markets kept to tight ranges ahead of series of major central bank meetings over the next week. For now, a cautious risk-on mood has prevailed after political crises that had hobbled markets, from Britain to Hong Kong, abated, and taking the shine off safe-haven assets. “Speculation over whether the ECB will enact a new QE program on Thursday continues to ebb and flow.” ECB policymakers are leaning toward a package that includes a rate cut, a pledge to keep rates low for longer and compensation for banks over the side-effects of negative rates, five sources familiar with the discussion said last week.
Investor focus for now is on the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, which is expected to push interest rates even further into negative territory. The ECB could set the tone for upcoming rate-setting decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next week, and for the broader global risk appetite.
With stats on the lighter side on the day ahead, the focus will remain on Brexit and monetary policy.
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