17/ 07/ 2019

Dollar Firm on Upbeat US Data While Pound & Euro on Back Foot

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to 1.1201 this Tuesday, to finish the day a couple of pips above it. The shared currency came under selling pressure following the release of the German ZEW survey, which showed that economic sentiment in the country fell.  The report blames the pessimistic sentiment on the Iran conflict, the trade dispute between the US and China, and Brexit uncertainty.  The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.2395, a level that was last seen in April 2017, as Brexit uncertainty keeps spooking investors away from the Pound. The UK released its latest employment data, which was overall strong, as the unemployment rate in the three months to May held as expected.

Looking ahead,UK & the EU will release June inflation data, with the CPI and The US will release June Housing Starts and Building Permits.

16/ 07/ 2019

Eyes on German ZEW Survey and US Retail Sales

The EUR/USD pair is trading near a daily low of 1.1252 ahead of the Asian opening, ending Monday with modest losses, despite the greenback remained out of the market’s favor. The Euro attempted to extend its previous advance, but was contained by sellers just below the 1.1300 level, later extending its decline on an upbeat US report. The Sterling has weakened against its American rival, with the GBP/USD pair falling to 1.2509, bouncing just modestly ahead of the US close to finish the day in the 1.2520 region. The UK currency was unable to capitalize broad dollar’s weakness, as Brexit concerns weighed, although there was no particular catalyst behind the intraday decline.

Looking ahead of the day, UK employment data will be a major focus in the European session. Eurozone will also release trade balance and German ZEW economic sentiment. Later in the day, US retail sales will take center stage. 

15/ 07/ 2019

Week Ahead | ECB to Continue QE as Fed Cements its case for an Interest Rate Cut

The Euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as dollar was as pressured by expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at a monetary policy meeting later this month. Against a basket of other currencies, the dollar fell 0.1% to 97.004, posting its worst daily loss against the yen and Swiss franc in more than three weeks. The dollar briefly trimmed losses after U.S. data showed producer prices rose slightly in June, up 0.1% following a similar gain in May. On the other hand, sterling strengthened against dollar, as bets that BOE could raise rates supported sterling across the board. BOE official Gertjan Vlieghe said the central bank might need to cut rates almost to zero in the event of a no-deal Brexit and it was not clear how long it would take for them to rise again. Vlieghe also said that a scenario in which the BoE cuts rates “is more possible” than a scenario in which it raises rates.

It’s a big week ahead, with key stats, and geopolitical risk to provide the majors with direction through the week.

11/ 07/ 2019

Euro & GBP Spikes Against Dovish Minutes from US, yet Powell's Testimony stays in Spotlight

The markets are receiving plenty of information to digest today with the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its June FOMC meeting which follows commentary from Chair Powell testified before yesterday morning. Leading FOMC members have raised concerns on weak job reports further putting pressure on the dollar causing a chaotic situation with tensions building up on Trade tensions. Euro rose above $1.12 against dollar on Wednesday,  bouncing off two-week lows, as Jerome Powell struck a downbeat tone in congressional testimony, saying trade uncertainties and concerns about the global outlook continued to exert pressure on the U.S. economy.

The greenback hit session lows versus the euro and yen after Powell’s comments, which reinforced expectations the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a decade at its next monetary policy meeting later this month. Sterling pound held near two years low against greenback yesterday, as better-than-expected readings on the British economy did little to lift the British currency .Growing fears of a no-deal Brexit under a new prime minister, and weak data in recent weeks, have raised fears that the Bank of England will have to reverse its relatively confident outlook on the British economy and join its global peers in starting to cut interest rates. Britain’s economy grew more than expected in May, helped by a rebound in car production after Brexit-related shutdowns,

While Powell follows Trump’s lead and takes a more dovish stance, U.S inflation figures could shift sentiment once more, ECB minutes are also due out.