Daily Update - 26th October 2017
The Euro rose against the greenback yesterday as the dollar turned lower, struggling to post further gains tied to speculation the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve will steer policy in a more hawkish direction. Greenback came under for selling pressure on a profit-taking following releases of surprisingly strong data on durable goods and new home sales data. Taylor favors a rule-based approach to setting interest rates and is seen as someone who may put the Fed on a path of faster interest rate increase compared with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Sterling firmed against dollar yesterday after data showed the British economy picking up speed, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week. Data on Britain’s quarterly gross domestic product growth showed the economy expanding at a faster pace than expected. Concerns about progress of talks on Britain’s departure from the European Union is set to continue to weigh on the pound, with businesses and investors keen to see a framework in place soon for the two-year transitional period after Britain formally leaves in March 2019. The Bank of Canada decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1% as expected and seems to be in no rush to raise rates anytime soon. They talk about “caution” regarding further hikes even though other statements are relatively upbeat about the economy. Economic data through the day is on the lighter side, with stats out of the Eurozone limited to Germany’s November consumer confidence figures. Following the ECB President’s recent statement that inflation looks set to accelerate in the near-term, ECB inflation and economic growth expectations will also be a factor for the markets to consider, anything hawkish likely to provide the EUR with a boost to $1.20 levels and beyond, based on a middle of a road tapering outcome and, while the ECB has continued to air its concerns over EUR appreciation, it’s going to be need to be dovish to peg back the EUR, with economic indicators continuing to favor a shift in policy. With no material stats out of the UK this morning, the Pound may struggle through the rest of the day as confusion over how the BoE will interpret the 3rd quarter GDP numbers and recently weak stats out of the UK. Across the Pond, stats are limited to the weekly jobless claims figures together with September goods trade and pending home sales numbers. There will need to be a material deviation from forecasts for the Dollar to see any significant moves in response to the numbers, with the Dollar Spot Index now in the hands of Draghi and Trump’s tax reforms and FED Chair choice. Yesterday’s Focus
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