The week ahead: US non-farm payrolls and European politics

2nd October 2017 - 6th October 2017

Monday

• USD ISM Prices Paid, USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

On Monday, there are no major events or indicators on the economic calendar. From US, will release its ISM Manufacturing PMI as in the recent months, this  provides the first hint as regards the Non-Farm Payrolls report has shown upbeat readings.

Tuesday

• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision, AUD RBA Rate Statement

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the rate statement on the first Tuesday of every month except January. The RBA uses this as a tool to communicate to the investors as regards the monetary policy. In addition to the outcome of the members’ decision, it provides a commentary on the prevailing economic conditions that impacted their decision. More importantly, the statement provides an economic outlook and clues on the direction of future decisions.

Wednesday

• EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting
• USD Fed's Yellen Speech

Investors are likely to tune in again to ECB Meeting as President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver opening remarks in Frankfurt at the ECB Visitor Center inauguration. Volatility in the markets can be expected during his speeches because traders make an attempt to decipher clues on the direction of interest rates in the future.

From US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver the opening speech at the community banking conference that is hosted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Markets often turn volatile during her speeches as traders look for interest rate clues.

Thursday

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• USD Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims

On Thursday, Firstly, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released that contains an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It's followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations. The aim is to provide the rationale behind monetary policy decisions and enable members of the public to improve their understanding of the Governing Council’s assessment of the economy and its policy responses in the light of evolving conditions.

From US, Jobless Claim is due to be released as they will present the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth.

Friday

• USD Nonfarm Payrolls, USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• CAD Net Change in Employment, Unemployment Rate (Sep)

With the Federal Reserve leaving the door open to an additional rate rise this year, investors will turn to the US jobs report due Friday as they look to determine the outlook for interest rates. However, with the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey looming over the report, the data could be messy. Wage growth and jobs gain are equally important. However, the Fed is planning to raise the interest rates in December. If the economic data does not support an increase, policymakers might change their decision.

From Canada, will also released its Net Change in Employment and Unemployment  Rate , it is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy.