mask Week Ahead | BOC and RBA in Focus with ECB in the Spotlight

04/ 09/ 2017

Week Ahead | BOC and RBA in Focus with ECB in the Spotlight

4th September 2017 - 8th September 2017

Monday

  • GBP PMI Construction

The stalemate in the Brexit negotiations has been weighing on the pound this week but UK data due in the next seven days may provide some much-needed distraction for traders. First up will be the IHS Markit/CIPS construction PMI on Monday. The construction PMI is forecast at 51.8 in August, while the services PMI is expected at 53.5, both down on the month. Although this week’s manufacturing PMI beat expectations, a similar upside surprise is less likely for the services PMI given the weakening picture for consumer spending.

Tuesday

  • RBA Rate Decision

On Tuesday, during the Asian day, the RBA will announce its policy decision. At its latest gathering, the Bank refrained from acting, as was widely expected, while the statement accompanying the decision showed once again that officials are content with the strong employment growth.

Wednesday

  • Australian Gross Domestic Product
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • BOC rate decision

On Wednesday, the central bank torch will be passed to BoC. The last time Bank officials gathered to decide on monetary policy, they judged it right to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25bps, in line with market expectations. The tone of the statement accompanying the decision was on the hawkish side, with the Bank dismissing the until-then soft inflation as being temporary. Most importantly, policymakers kept the prospect of further near-term hikes on the table. As for the economic data on Wednesday, Australia's GDP print for Q2 will be in focus.

In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August is due out and the forecast is for the index to have risen somewhat after declining significantly in July. Something like that could be encouraging news for FOMC policymakers, and would likely be another piece of data entering the basket of those supporting the case for another rate hike this year. That said, as we have noted countless times, the main determinant of whether another hike will indeed materialize this year may be US inflation data.

Thursday

  • EUR Gross Domestic Product
  • ECB Deposit, Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference
  • US Initial Jobless Claims

Looking at economic reports and data Thursday is going to be the day of ECB, there is a lot more expectation ECB’s head this week for EUR appreciation, the day would be started with Eurozone GDP reports with ECB deposit rate decision and Interest rate decision, that could show some volatility in Eurozone later on in the afternoon US will be releasing its continuing Jobless claims, Initial Jobless claims, unit labor costs and Nonfarm productivity which are middle major reports to boost USD, same time ECB monetary policy meeting and press conference will be there to make some great movement in EUR and the day would finishing with .

Friday

  • EUR Trade Balance
  • GBP Manufacturing & Industrial Production
  • CAD Unemployment Rate

Once again with busier schedules week would be finishing with some major reports like Consumer Inflation Expectation along with Manufacturing production and Industrial Production, in the afternoon Canada will be releasing its Unemployment Rate and Net change in Employment which are major reports to move CAD.

With these reports, there will also be reports are coming from Germany and US as well, like Current accounts, Exports, Imports and Trade balance from Germany and Consumer credit change from US.