Week Ahead | Central Banks, Economic Data & A New Brexit Deadline to Drive the Market

14th December 2020 - 18th December 2020

Monday

• JPY    Industrial Production (YoY)(Oct) 
• EUR   Industrial Production Sentix Investor Confidence

It will be a relatively quiet day, along with finalized industrial production figures for October from Japan. While the numbers will draw interest, the impact on the Yen will likely be relatively muted.

In the 1st half of the week, October industrial production figures for the Eurozone and finalized inflation figures from Italy and France are due out. Expect industrial production figures to have the greatest influence.

 

Tuesday

• AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• CNY Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov)
• GBP Claimant Count Change(Nov),ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)(Oct)
• CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. November employment change figures, due out at the end of the week, will draw plenty of interest. 

Out of China,  November fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures are due out. Expect industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures to have the greatest influence.

From UK, it’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar. In the 1st half of the week, claimant count, wage growth, employment change, and unemployment figures are in focus. Expect claimant counts and the unemployment rate to be the key drivers. Mid-week, November inflation figures will also garner interest ahead of a busy 2nd half of the week. November retail sales figures are due out, which will draw plenty of interest.

 

Wednesday

• GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 
• EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI(Dec) 
• CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)(Nov) 
• USD Retail Sales Control Group(Nov), Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov), FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed's Monetary Policy Statement, FOMC Press Conference
• NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3)

On Wednesday, in the 1st half of the week from US, November retail sales and December private sector PMIs are due out, along with industrial production and NY Empire State Manufacturing figures. Expect retail sales and service sector PMIs to be the key drivers on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the monetary policy front, the FED is also in action on Wednesday. While the FED is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, an expansion to the bond purchasing program could be on the cards. Also of interest, however, will be the FED’s interest rate projections and economic projections.

 

Thursday

• CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision(Dec 18) , SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility, Bank of England Minutes, BoE Interest Rate Decision.

The main event of the week, however, is the BoE monetary policy decision. There has been the talk of negative rates, the markets will get an idea of what to expect, particularly with some degree of clarity on Brexit by Thursday. While the markets are expecting the BoE to leave rates unchanged, forward guidance will, therefore, be key.

 

Friday

• JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement ,  BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
• CAD Retail Sales (MoM)(Oct) 

In the 2nd half of the week, German IFO Business Climate index figures for December will also influence on Friday.