Week Ahead | Draghi & Yellen in Focus

20th November 2017 - 24th November 2017

Monday

• EUR Producer Price Index & ECB President Draghi Speech

The day will begin with Producer Price index released by Germany. This measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. In the evening markets will be focused on Draghi. He faces European MPs in Brussels and may lay out an updated view of the euro-zone economies and the inflation situation. The next meeting of the ECB is only in mid-December, so Draghi will not be constrained by a “quiet period”.

Tuesday

• AUD RBA Meeting Minutes, Gov. Philip Lowe Speech
• EU Financial Stability Review
• GBP Inflation Report Hearing
• USD FED Yellen Speech

A busy day in the markets with several key speeches planned with FED Yellens speech being the highlight of the day. Early morning RBA will release their meeting minutes from the last meeting along with a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe. This will followed by a Financial Stability review in the euro zone which will be watched closely by markets.

Next up will be Inflation report hearings from UK, where BOE Governor and the Monetary Policy Committee members are scheduled to testify before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament on inflation and economic outlook. The hearings last for a few hours and cause market volatility. Then the focus shifts to Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair, where she is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion on the topic “In Conversation with Mervyn King” at the Stern School of Business in New York University. Market volatility is expected during her speech.

Wednesday

• EUR Non-Monetary Policy’s ECB Meeting
• GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
• USD Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders & FOMC Minutes

Busy day before Thanks Giving Holiday. Early morning we will have the ECB Non-Monetary Policy’s meeting minutes. Then UK will release Autum Forecast Statement which provides an update on the economic outlook and a preview of the government’s budget for the coming year. The latter half of the day belongs to USA. With several reports such as Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods being released.

Sales of durable goods reflect investment and feed into GDP data. The Fed focuses on core durable orders which increased by 0.7%, an upbeat figure. While the Fed hinted that they are on course to raise rates in December, they changed their wording about inflation, describing it as “soft”. We will now get an insight into the discussion among the members about inflation and job growth. It is unlikely that the minutes will change expectations about the December meeting, but the dollar will likely move. The day will end with meeting minutes from FOMC.

Thursday

• EUR Gross Domestic Product, Markit PMI Composite, Manufacturing PMI & ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• GBP Gross Domestic Product

Financial markets in Japan and USA will be closed for Thanks Giving holiday. The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity. The UK is to produce revised data on third quarter economic growth. The ECB is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting in the evening.

Friday

• IFO Currrent Assessment, IFO Business Climate & IFO Expectations
• USD Markit Manufacturing PMI

The day will start with few economic surveys from Germany. These will give indication about the current business climate in Germany and give an assessment to the markets as to what the consumers expect. The day will end with US Markit PMI which captures business conditions in the US manufacturing sector and lastly Markit Services PMI which captures business conditions in the US services sector.