8th January 2018 - 12th January 2018
On Monday, there will be mid-tier reports to be released concerning EUR as Italy will release its Unemployment report, Consumer and Industrial Confidence followed by Bank of Canada report that shows the business outlook in Canada. The Business Confidence allows analysis of economic situation in the short-term interviewing with 100 business executives. From US, the president of the San Francisco Fed will participate in a panel about inflation in Washington. Not only is the topic very relevant for the dollar, but Williams is a voting member this year. On Tuesday, EU will release its Non- Monetary Policy’s ECB Meeting, and few reports from Germany such as Trade Balance which positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR. • GBP The Industrial Production, Manufacturing production • GBP NIESR GDP Estimate On Wednesday, UK reports will start the day with Industrial and Manufacturing Production that measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. GBP may show positive or negative variations on Wednesday. followed by GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is an estimate of growth over the last 3 months up to the report which comes out a month before the official announcement. The report is highly reliable and would influence the UK monetary policy. Also a mid-tier report for Euro indicating the returns on bonds holding by investors, may have an effect on EUR. • EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting, Industrial Production • GBP BOE Credit conditions survey • USD Initial jobless claims, Willian Dudley Speech On Thursday, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It's followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations. The aim is to provide the rationale behind monetary policy decisions and enable members of the public to improve their understanding of the Governing Council’s assessment of the economy and its policy responses in the light of evolving conditions. The European Central Bank began reducing its bond-buying scheme in January, in a decision made already in October. However, there are differences between the members of the ECB about the next moves and the level of worry about low inflation. In the December meeting, Draghi made an attempt of sorts to push the euro lower, but this clearly failed. The minutes from that meeting may reveal where the wind is blowing within the ranks of the Frankfurt-based institution about the potential end to QE in September, or perhaps only later on. From US, the outgoing president of the New York Fed will be speaking in New York. His views often reflect those of outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Incoming Fed Chair Jay Powell has always voted with the consensus, so perhaps Dudley’s thoughts also reflect those of the incoming Chair. Also, amid tier report on jobless claims will be released. • USD Retail Sales, Consumer price index, Monthly Budget Statement On Friday, few reports such as Retail Sales that measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. CPI is also one, measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Lastly, Monthly Budget Statement will be released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish. Quite an eventful day with important reports coming from USA. Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
