mask Week Ahead | Geo Political Tensions on the Cards

15/ 04/ 2018

Week Ahead | Geo Political Tensions on the Cards

16th April 2018 – 20th April 2018

Monday

  • USD Retail Sales

Better than expected Retail sales could be the ideal start to the week as Greenback will look to cover most of its lost ground. However, it should be noted that for the past 3 months the readings have dropped mainly due to lower sales of gasoline, vehicles and parts dealers.

Tuesday

  • CNY Gross Domestic Product
  • GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus, ILO Unemployment Rate & Claimant Count Change
  • EUR ZEW Survey
  • USD Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization & Speeches from FED members

Quite an eventful tuesday as we will see data coming in from China, UK, Euro zone and USA. China, the world’s second largest economy will publish it’s final GDP for the 1st quarter. Then UK will release their jobs reports where the focus would be on wages as the ongoing acceleration in pay implies a growing concern for a rate hike.

Then it will be the ZEW Surveys from Germany which measures the economic situation and sentiment in Germany. The final half of the day belongs to USA with several mid-tier reports being released with regards to housing sector and industrial sector. Furthermore 2 speeches are also scheduled from FED Members Williams and Quarles.

Wednesday

  • GBP Retail Price Index, PPI and CPI
  • EUR CPI – Core & CPI
  • CAD BOC Interest Rate Decision and Pres Conference
  • USD Speeches from FED members

An Important day for UK and the whole euro zone as we will see the release of Inflation figures. Early morning, we will see UK Releasing their Retail Price figures. Then it will be the release of PPI along with march inflation figures. Last month readings declined compared to previous month hence positive figures would be key for Pound to make a comeback. This will be followed by Euro Zone Inflation figures which will be scrutinized by investors for price movements.

The latter half belongs to Canada with the release of their rate decision and press conference. Last time they met, they kept the rate unchanged and it is expected to repeat the same . The focus would be on the press conference for any fresh hints on monetary policy changes.

Thursday

  • AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
  • GBP Retail Sales
  • USD Continuing & Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey

Early morning, we will see Australia releasing their Jobs reports and it is expected that they have added 20.3k jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate to drop to 5.5%. Then comes the release of UK Retail Sales which is expected to better than last month.

In the evening we will see unemployment reports from USA. Last report was better than expected hinting that unemployment is declining in USA. Then it will be the release of Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey which is an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is interrelated with the ISM manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) and the index of industrial production.

Friday

  • EUR IMF Meeting & German Buba Presidents Speech
  • CAD Retail Sales & CPI

Key event of the day would be the IMF Meeting. Traders will pay close attention to this event as it might bring a new dimension to the markets while changes to international exchange rates. A speech is scheduled from German Buba President and it will interesting to see if he carries the same opinions as ECB members. The day will end with Canadian Retail Sales and Inflation data.