mask Week Ahead I Can the Dollar hold on to its gains?

18/ 06/ 2017

Week Ahead I Can the Dollar hold on to its gains?

19th June 2017 - 23rd June 2017

Monday

  • USD Fed’s William Dudley, Fed’s Evan Speech
  • GBP Start of Brexit Negotiations

The day will start with speeches firstly from Fed William Dudley Speech at the Federal Reserve and usually a dove. In his speech in Plattsburgh, Dudley could provide more insight about the next moves of the Fed. Markets care mostly about interest rates and if Dudley surprises with hawkishness, markets will react.

Brexit Negotiations is also due in no time, this will be the formal talks between the European Union and United Kingdom representatives about Brexit terms begin on June 19th. The process is expected to last up to 15 months and will conclude with the UK formally leaving the EU.

Tuesday

  • AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

  • USD FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
  • JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Day with its light calendar begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting two weeks after the announcement of the cash rate. It provides a detailed account of the RBA Board’s most recent interest rate meeting. It contains in-depth insight into the country’s economic conditions that impacted the decision process. Aslso, Federal Reserve Governor Stanley Fischer is to speak and contrary to Dudley, he is considered a hawk. Fischer will be speaking across the pond, in Amsterdam. He will have a bigger impact if he goes dovish. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy. On the other hand, The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility.

Wednesday

  • EUR Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
  • GBP UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks

The Net Borrowing released by the National Statistics captures an amount of new debt held by the U.K. governments (the financial deficit in the UK national accounts). Generally speaking, if the Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK Accounts are surplus, and that should be positive for the GBP. While a deficit is generally unfavorable for the economy, a growth in the Net Borrowing is considered as negative, or bearish for the GBP. Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance, referrers to bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market’s currency. The report is released by the Ministry of Finance, detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow).

Thursday

  • EUR EU Economic Bulletin Report, Consumer Confidence
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims

The day will begin in releasing report from Economic Bulletin Report and Consumer Confidence which is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while low-level drives to economic downturn. Moreover, US will release its Initial Jobless Claims that will measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week

Friday

  • EUR German Manufacturing PMI
  • USD Market Manufacturing PMI & New Home Sales

The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Market Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The day will end with New Home sales from US which is an important measure of housing market conditions.