mask Week Ahead | Markets caught between Geo-Politics & Trade Woes

10/ 06/ 2019

Week Ahead | Markets caught between Geo-Politics & Trade Woes

10th June 2019 - 14th June 2019


  • JPY - Gross Domestic Product
  • USD - Consumer price index
  • GBP - Gross Domestic Product

On Monday, for JPY finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers due out that will provide further evidence of the impact of the ongoing U.S – China trade war on the Japanese economy. From US, the April JOLTs job openings report kicks things off, with the latest nonfarm payroll numbers creating greater interest into Monday’s numbers. From UK, it’s a busy first half of the week, April industrial and manufacturing production figures are due out alongside April’s trade data and GDP numbers. The focus will be on the production and GDP figures at the start of the week.


  • GBP - Average Earnings Excluding Bonus & Including Bonus, ILO Unemployment Rate.
  • USD - Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy

On Tuesday, from UK, employment and wage growth figures due out on Tuesday will also have a material impact on the Pound. From US, May wholesale inflation and consumer price numbers due out on Tuesday and Wednesday will also drive the Dollar. FED Chair Powell had spoken last week and the markets will look for any signs of softer inflation.



  • USD - Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy, Consumer Price Index.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted that recent weakness in inflation has been transitory and the rise of Core CPI to 2.1% y/y in April vindicates his words. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate



  • EUR - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
  • USD - Continuing Jobless Claims
  • AUD - Unemployment Rate.

On Thursday, it’s a quieter week ahead for the EUR, May prelim inflation figures are due out of Spain, Germany, France, and Italy through the week. Forecasts are for a pickup in inflationary pressures that would be EUR positive. The Eurozone’s April industrial production figures are due out on Thursday and will also provide the EUR with direction.

From US, although USD Continuing Jobless Claims generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy

After the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed interest rates, it will be interesting to see if the labor market remains in the spotlight and will shape the next rate decision. A more moderate gain in positions is likely in the report for May.



  • USD - Retail sales & Retail sales ex-autos, Industrial production

On Friday, retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Following a relatively quiet Thursday, it’s a busy day on Friday. May retail sales and industrial production numbers are due out along with April business inventory figures. Later in the day, prelim June inflation figures are also due out. We can expect the Friday retail sales figures to have the greatest impact on the week. Outside of the stats, sentiment towards trade and FED monetary policy will influence through the week.