mask Week Ahead | Markets eyeing on Dollar Strength

09/ 04/ 2017

Week Ahead | Markets eyeing on Dollar Strength

10th of April - 14th April 2017

Monday

  • USD Labour Market Conditions Index & FED’s Yellen Speech

Quite day to start the week. with US releasing their Labour Market Conditions Index. According to the FED, US labor market is large and multifaceted. One essential feature of this model is that its inference about labor market conditions places greater weight on indicators whose movements are highly correlated with each other. 

 

Day will end with a speech from Janet Yellen where she is scheduled to speak at the University of Michigan and answer questions from the audience. Markets often remain volatile during her speeches. This is because traders try to decipher clues on the direction of the interest rates in the future.

Tuesday

  • EUR Industrial Production & Economic Sentiment
  • GBP Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index & PPI Core Output
  • USD 10Year Note Auction

Europe will release their Industrial Production & Economic Sentiment for Germany. The Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. From Germany, The Economic Sentiment measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic.

Very important day for UK as they will release their Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index & PPI Core Output. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The Producer Price Index is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

Later in the the day, US will release Their 10 Year Note Action. The yield on the notes represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

Wednesday

  • GBP Claimant Count Change

CAD BOC Interest rate decision, Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Report & BAC Press Conference

  • USD Monthly Budget Statement

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployed people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Eventful day for Canada as they will release their, BOC Interest rate decision, Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Report & BAC Press Conference. If the BoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy followed by BOC Rate Statement. This will communicate to investors about monetary policy decisions, specifically those regarding interest rates. Their Monetary policy report indicates a study of economic movements in Canada. It indicates a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the CAD volatility. Afterwards BOC Governor and Senior Deputy Governor hold a press conference after the release of BOC Monetary Policy Report. 

The day ends with US releasing their monthly budget statement. The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. 

Thursday

  • AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
  • EUR Consumer Price Index
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims

Early morning, Australia will release their Unemployment data and Their Employment Change data. The Unemployment Rate is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy.  From Germany consumer price index will be released which measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. 

The day will end with US releasing their Initial Jobless Claims. The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market.

Friday

  • JPY Industrial Production
  • USD Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Ex Autos

Busy end to an eventful week with Japan releasing their Industrial Production data. The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector.

The day ends with US releasing their Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Ex Autos. The retail Sales measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The Retail Sales  ex Autos is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence.