mask Week Ahead | Nonfarm Payrolls back in Play as Trade War Tensions Ease

01/ 04/ 2018

Week Ahead | Nonfarm Payrolls back in Play as Trade War Tensions Ease

02nd April 2018 – 06th April 2018

Monday

  • USD ISM Priced Paid & ISM Manufacturing PMI

Monday will be slightly quite as most markets will be closed for Easter Holidays. However, we will have two mid-tier reports from USA with the release of ISM Prices Paid and ISM Manufacturing PMI. The Manufacturing PMI shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector while the ISM Prices Paid shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector.

Tuesday

  • AUD RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision
  • EUR Retail Sales & Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech

Most markets will be opened for trading after the long Easter holidays. Early morning, we will see RBA releasing their Interest rate decision along with their rate statement. Then it will be Euro zone with the release of Retail Sales and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

UK will also release their Markit Manufacturing PMI while this will be scrutinized closely as last month’s reading indicated that the expansion in the manufacturing sector was at the lowest level in eight months. The day will end with a speech by FOMC member Neil Kashkari.

Wednesday

  • AUD Retail Sales & Building Permits
  • EUR Unemployment Rate & CPI
  • USD ADP Employment Change, Markit PMI Composite, Markit Services, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI & Factory Orders

Another busy day in the markets with reports released from Australia, Euro zone and USA. Early morning Australia will release Retail Sales and Building Permits. Retail sales figures will be closely watched by investors as the figure is expected to rise by 0.4% indicating a growth in retail segment.

The latter half of the day belongs to USA with a set of mid-tier data being released. ADP Employment will make headways for Fridays all important Nonfarm payrolls. ISM Non-manufacturing PMI & Factory Orders will also move the markets as February’s employment slowed down, but new orders and production grew faster. Hence February figures, eased the price pressures while the economic outlook and business conditions remained positive for USA.

Thursday

  • EUR Markit PMI Composite, Markit Services & ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • GBP Markit Services
  • USD Trade Balance, Continuing Jobless Claims & Initial Jobless Claims

An important day for Euro investors as ECB will release their Monetary Policy accounts along with 2 mid-tier reports. Markit PMI and Markit Services will be closely watched for further support for the Euro. This will be followed by Markit Services from UK. Market Services serves an indicator of the economic situation in the services sector.

The final half of the day belongs to USA with Trade Balance and Labor data reports. Trade Balance is the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. Continuing jobless claims measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits while Initial Jobless claims is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance.

Friday

  • EUR Industrial Production
  • USD Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls

Friday will be the busiest day in the market as USA will release the Nonfarm payrolls for March. From Germany we will see the Industrial Production which measures outputs of the German factories and mines.

Then comes the release of US Average Hourly earnings which is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. This is followed by Unemployment Rate which is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force.

Final data release will be the Nonfarm payrolls for March. The February figure beat analysts’ expectations for an increase of 200,000 jobs. This was the biggest nonfarm payrolls increase since July 2016. However disappointing Average hourly earnings in February meant the gains were not much for the Dollar.  Hence this will be a key report for the Greenback to gain lost ground.