23rd December 2019 - 27th December 2019
USD: Durable Goods Orders (Nov) USD: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Nov) Durable goods orders are predicted to increase 1.9% in November after rising a revised 0.5% in October. Orders ex-transport are expected to rise 0.1% following October’s revised 0.5% gain. Orders-ex defense are projected to be flat in November as they were in October. Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for business investment, is forecast to fall 0.3% after October’s 1.1% increase revised from 1.2%. Additionally, the November month Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as New Home Sales, could also entertain traders before spreading the holiday mood. While the activity gauge is expected to recover to -0.09 versus -0.71 earlier, the housing data may soften to 0.728M against 0.733M prior. The Bank of Japan's next move will be to dial back its massive stimulus, which is already priced into the FX market. There's a chance growth in overseas and Japanese economies could pick up next year, so any such withdrawal of stimulus will begin from 2021 at the earliest. Monetary policy in Japan is likely to be in a holding pattern for the time being, which the minutes will likely continue to be pointing towards. Japan’s economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend, as the impact of the slowdown in overseas economies on domestic demand is expected to be limited, although the economy is likely to continue to be affected by the slowdown for the time being. he BoJ's policymakers have been under pressure to do more to underpin a fragile economic recovery and the economy is forecast to have shrunk by an annualized 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which would be the biggest contraction since April-June 2014. The tax increase has put a burden on households and that could result in a worse consumer spending element for this current quarter which should hinder on the pace of recovery next year where growth is expected to rebound by 0.9% and 1.2% in the first and second quarters of 2020, following 0.9% expansion in 2019 through to the current fiscal year's end on March 2020. The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. Initial jobless claims fell 18,000 to 234,000 in the week ended December 14. Economists expected 227,000 new jobless claims. November prelim industrial production and retail sales figures are due out along with inflation numbers for December.While any further slide in production would raise yet more red flags, there’s Abe’s fiscal policy measures and the U.S – China phase 1 trade agreement to consider. The BoJ is showing no signs of wanting to deliver more support. To be fair, monetary policy has failed to drive inflation.Monday
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