mask Week Ahead | Will the Dollar hold on to its Gains?

06/ 05/ 2018

Week Ahead | Will the Dollar hold on to its Gains?

07th May 2018 – 11th May 2018

Monday

  • USD Consumer Credit Change & FED Speeches

Light start to the week as we will only be seeing one mid-tier data release from US. Consumer Credit Change is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. The day will end with speeches from FED members Barkin, Kaplan and Evans.

Tuesday

  • EUR Industrial Production & Trade Balance
  • CAD Housing Starts

Another light day as we will only see mid-tier reports from Germany and Canada. Industrial Production from Germany features outputs of the German factories and mines while Trade Balance report shows the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. The day will end with Canada releasing their Housing Starts which captures how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed.

Wednesday

  • GBP BRC Like for Like Retail Sales
  • USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy & FOMC Member Bostic Speech

Wednesday will bring us 2 mid-tier reports from UK and USA along with a speech from one of the FOMC members. BRC Like for Like Retail Sales from UK, measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from participating companies with invaluable management information on a regular and reliable basis. Producer Price Index from US, measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. The day will end with a speech by FOMC members Bostic.

Thursday

  • GBP Production Reports & BOE Event (Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference & etc.)
  • USD Continuing & Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index

The markets will look forward to the most volatile day of the week as Bank of England will have its famous Super Thursday while markets will look forward to the release of US inflation figures. Before the BOE event, UK will release 3 mid-tier reports on industrial and manufacturing production. All reports indicate the output of UK factories. Around 3 a clock UAE time we will see the start of the BOE Super Thursday Event which will feature Rate decision, monetary policy summary, Quarterly Inflation Report, MPC Vote, BOE Minutes along with BOE Governor Carney addressing the media.

The focus will be on the forecasts for inflation and the messages about raising rates in the remainder of the year. If Carney and co. convey a message that the situation has worsened and that no hike is expected this year, the pound could extend its plunge. If they see the recent slowdown as temporary, like Draghi did when referring to the euro-zone, Sterling could recover.

US Inflation data release will be closely watched by markets for fresh hints on whether to buy or sell the dollar. If the figures are above 1.9% as expected this may send the dollar further up. A deterioration to 1.8% could lower expectations for rate hikes and could send the dollar down.

Friday

  • CAD Unemployment Rate & Net Change in Employment
  • USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Another light day as the markets look forward to a calm finish to the week. From Canada we will see the release of the jobs report. March figures were exceptional for Canadian economy but this time around the expectation is for moderate increase. From US we will see the release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment which a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity is.