mask Will Draghi Catch the Markets and the EUR by Surprise?

08/ 03/ 2018

Will Draghi Catch the Markets and the EUR by Surprise?

Daily Update - 8th March 2018

Yesterday’s Focus

  • EUR Gross Domestic Product
  • USD ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unit Labor Costs & Nonfarm Productivity
  • CAD BOC Rate Statement & BOC Interest Rate Decision

Yesterday’s Explained

On Wednesday, the report came as the EU released its Q4 GDP numbers that met analysts’ estimates. The Q4 QoQ GDP grew by 0.6% while the annualized number remained at 2.7%.

From US, greenback is trying to regain some ground in early US session after better than expected job data. Released from US, ADP report showed 235k growth in private sector jobs in February, above expectation of 200k. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 234k to 244k. Trade deficit widened to USD -56.6b in January. Nonfarm productivity was finalized at 0.0% in Q4, unit labor costs at 2.5%.

From Canada, as widely anticipated, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% yesterday. The accompanying statement was more cautious than the previous one, over the trade outlook. Policymakers suggested that ‘trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks’, in addition to reiteration of the need for remaining ‘cautious in considering future policy adjustments’. Expectations of another rate hike in April diminished after the announcement.

Today’s Focus

  • EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference, ECB Deposit Rate & Interest Rate Decision
  • USD Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Today’s Market

On Thursday, busy day for forex market as there are some reports from china, Japan, Canada, UK and US. But Thursday is an important day for Eurozone as key decisions on interest rate and deposit rate from ECB is expected to be released. Following the ECB´s economic policy decision, the ECB President Draghi will give a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of EUR and determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

Day will end with Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims from US which are measures of the US employment market. These figures will also move the markets in favor of the Dollar and will provide support to Fridays Nonfarm payrolls.