21/ 03/ 2018

Will the FED trigger more market volatility?

Yesterday Euro and Pound came under selling pressure, as the dollar got the market favor while the data released from the European union disappointed the investors. German ZEW Survey indicated that economic sentiment deteriorated in the country in March, probably due to a US-triggered trade war.

Today marks an important day in the calendar as the FED will look to raise interest rates. However, the focus will be on economic projections for the quarter which could end up signaling more than the three interest rate hikes which were forecasted in December.

20/ 03/ 2018

Will UK CPI Trigger Sterling Bulls and BoE Hawks?

Sterling soars yesterday on news that EU and UK has finally agreed on the Brexit transition deal. The progress in Brexit negotiation removed one key obstacle for BoE to hike again in May. And CPI data will be a key factor for MPC’s consideration. Hence, any upside surprise would likely lead to further rally in the Pound.

The U.S Dollar was on the move this morning as focus continues to shift to tomorrow’s FOMC, with FED Chair Powell having raised the prospects of penciling in 4 rate hikes for the year. In addition to economy data, G20 communique on trade will be watched today as trade war remains a concern of investors. For the Pound, this morning’ inflation figures will be key, while ECB members also talk of a shift in policy in interest rates.

19/ 03/ 2018

Week Ahead | The USD Finds Support as Focus Shifts to the FED

The past week saw market volatility stabilize from previous weeks as both the US dollar and equity markets look for direction amid continuing concerns over the potential for a global trade war. President Trump fired his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. While Tillerson was not involved in economic policy, another White House ousting increased fears that Trump will take a more hardline policy. 

Looking the week ahead, the focus now shifts to FOMC rate decision, policy statement, economic projections, and press conference on Wednesday, presided over for the first time by new Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a quiet day on the data front giving the markets time to consider what lies ahead, with the BoE and Euro Summit also in focus.

15/ 03/ 2018

Dollar weakens further with US Retail Sales

The retail sales report was the most important piece of U.S. data on this week's calendar and unfortunately it provided zero support for the greenback. Even a dovish speech by Draghi didn’t push the Euro down as the Dollar was already weak with so much chaos in the white house administration.

Today, greenback may find some support with US jobs reports but the main focus will be political appointments as President Trump is widely expected to confirm Larry Kudlow as Gary Cohn's replacement. Larry Kudlow’s appointment should bring some assurance for the investors as he is a well-known financial media personality who will favor moderate trade & economic policies.