14/ 03/ 2018

White House Chaos Weakens the Dollar

Yesterday’s US Inflation figures were expected to move the markets in favor of the Greenback, but Trump had other plans. US Secretary of state, Rex Tillerson was dismissed and his departure along with 4 more white house officials meant that the White House raises the risks of more interventionist trade and foreign policy.

The confidence of foreign leaders and foreign investors, equity market investors to dollar bulls have been shaken by the news and this could only mean worse for the greenback in the shorter term.

Today’s focus will be on ECB President Mario Draghi’s Speech in Frankfurt, German Inflation and US Retail Sales. Normally any major data from US is expected to move the markets but this white house chaos means expectations are tipping lower against today’s US Retail Sales.

13/ 03/ 2018

Market Uncertainty Over US Inflation

Political uncertainties and a stronger US Dollar left the Euro and Pound weaker towards the end of last week, following days of wide fluctuations. Yesterday was a quiet day but the Greenback ended the day on a high, with markets expecting better inflation data release on Tuesday.

US Inflation figures will be key today, as it is potentially set to create more uncertainty for investors. However higher inflation will give the greenback a nice boost. Pound will also be under scrutiny with the release of UK Budget Report, as constant back and forth in ‘hard Brexit’ and ‘soft Brexit’ speculation is leaving too much uncertainty.

12/ 03/ 2018

Week Ahead | US Inflation Data

The greenback had a mixed week amid hopes for peace in the Korean peninsula, fears of trade wars and also a mixed jobs report. Mario Draghi was dovish in his press conference where he mentioned “increasing protectionism may hurt the euro zone economy in the long term while QE program may continue beyond Sep 2018 if necessary”.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data to gauge how it will affect the outlook for monetary tightening in the coming months. Furthermore, developments on Trade War, Brexit Negotiations and dramatic political incidents may move the markets.

08/ 03/ 2018

Will Draghi Catch the Markets and the EUR by Surprise?

The U.S. Dollar bounced back against a basket of currencies yesterday after four days of selling pressure. The greenback was supported by positive private sector jobs data and the White House saying Canada and Mexico, and possibly other countries, may be exempted from planned U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Traders said this news may be an indication that the Trump Administration is not as serious as suspected about implementing the tariffs.

Looking ahead, some reports will be released from China, Japan, Canada, UK and US. But it is an important day for Eurozone as key decisions on interest rate and deposit rate from ECB is expected to be released.