05/ 12/ 2019

Economic Data and Opinion Polls Put the EUR and the GBP in Focus

The euro declined against the dollar yesterday, as uncertainty about the progress of trade talks between the United States and China fueled demand for the greenback. The dollar had come under some pressure this week as some decent eurozone data and surprisingly strong China survey figures raised hopes that the global economy will pick up traction next year and boost demand for non-U.S. currencies. Sterling rose against greenback, as investors betted that, a parliamentary majority under the right-leaning Conservative Party would do more good for the pound than ongoing worries about disintegration from the European Union. Polls have consistently given Johnson’s party a lead over the opposition Labour Party. While Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU on Jan. 31, the Labour Party has said it would push for a second referendum on the departure. 

Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, as nagging fears the Sino-U.S. trade war will drag on increased demand for safe haven assets. Washington and Beijing are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal. The report comes a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade agreement may be delayed until after the November 2020 U.S. elections, which prompted a sell-off in dollar.

Economic data puts the EUR in focus, while the Pound continues to rise on expectations of a Tory victory.

04/ 12/ 2019

Risk-off keeps Investors away from the Greenback

The euro strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday, as disappointing manufacturing data and signs of new fronts in U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war weighed on greenback. Moves in currency markets were broadly contained, however, with volatility remaining low and investors not appearing to take much fright at news of U.S. tariffs on imports of metals from Argentina and Brazil and the threat of more tariffs on a range of European goods. Sterling edged higher against greenback, against the backdrop of broad-based dollar weakness and after a new poll showed the ruling Conservative Party widening its lead before next week’s election. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives led the main opposition Labour party by 12 points, a survey by Kantar showed, before a parliamentary election on Dec. 12.

The dollar weakened against the safe haven currencies, as nagging fears the Sino-U.S. trade war will drag on increased demand for safe haven assets. U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Geopolitics, the BoC and service sector activity will keep the markets busy on the day ahead.

28/ 11/ 2019

Trump Signs the HK Bill, Will China Retaliate or Bide its Time?

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies yesterday on upbeat U.S. data in subdued trading as uncertainty about a possible U.S.-China trade deal lingered during a U.S. holiday shortened week. Dollar was also bolstered by hopes that the United States and China were close to signing an initial deal that would end a 16-month trade war while, the euro declined against dollar , after a batch of U.S. economic data brightened the economic outlook. Sterling edged higher against greenback on Wednesday, recovering from early losses following the third poll in a row that showed a narrowing lead for the governing Conservative Party before Britain’s Dec. 12 election.

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone are limited to prelim inflation figures out of Spain and Germany.We can expect the markets to brush aside the numbers on the day. Trading volumes later in the day will be on the lighter side, with the U.S markets shut for Thanksgiving. Outside of the numbers, the markets will continue to be sensitive to any updates from Beijing and Washington on trade. In the early hours of this morning, Trump signed the HK Bill to protect HK Protestors in spite of Beijing’s demands to veto the bill.

27/ 11/ 2019

US China Trade Talk Continues, UK Conservative party’s lead narrowing

The U.S. dollar was slightly lower against a basket of currencies yesterday as traders looked to the latest developments in the U.S.-China trade talks for direction and the shortened holiday week kept currency moves muted. The United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of a trade deal, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues. While, sterling fell after a second opinion poll showed the Conservative Party’s lead is narrowing before the British election next month, the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China were close to agreeing on the first phase of a trade deal. The futures are pointing to a mixed day as the markets look for a positive conclusion to phase 1 trade talks that appear to be neverending.

Major currencies hardly budged on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the final outcome of U.S.-China trade talks and a shortened holiday week in the United States.