26/ 11/ 2019

Markets Doubt US-Sino Progress, ECB-Speak, US Data Eyed

The week has started with the greenback appreciating against most major rivals, on the back of another peak of optimism related to the US-China trade relationship. The latest news indicated that the Chinese government said it would raise penalties on intellectual property theft on Sunday, something the US has been demanding for long. The Pound was the exception to the rule, gapping higher at the weekly opening and surging against the greenback to 1.2911 during US trading hours. The positive momentum of the UK currency was backed by renewed optimism related to Brexit, as weekend polls showed that Conservatives continued leading voting intentions.

As updates on trade continue to grip the markets, consumer confidence figures out of Germany and the U.S will also garner interest today.

24/ 11/ 2019

Week Ahead | Trump and Xi, Trade Deal and UK Politics in Focus

The U.S. dollar shook off early weakness to advance against a basket of currencies on Friday, after data showed U.S. factory and services activity quickened in November in a sign of the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Helping the dollar’s strength was a survey which showed euro zone business growth almost ground to a halt this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again. Despite the rise on Friday, the dollar has remained largely range-bound over the last few sessions. For the week, the dollar index is up 0.24%. Mixed messages on the U.S.-China trade deal this week kept investors from taking on any large directional positions ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday. Chinese President Xi Jinping said Beijing wants to work out a deal with Washington and has been trying to avoid a trade war - but is not afraid to retaliate when necessary. A senior Chinese diplomat urged the United States to compromise in order to develop stable relations between the countries, saying that some U.S. politicians were trying to push the countries into confrontation.

The upcoming week might be relatively quiet as it’s shortened by US thanksgiving holiday. But December is like guaranteed to be a wild one. UK elections will be a focus. Next batch of US-China tariff escalation might or might not come on December 15. The democratic movement in Hong Kong would also complete its sixth month.

21/ 11/ 2019

Dollar Stays Afloat on Rising Concerns Over U.S.-China Trade Deals, Unlikely this Year Headlines

The yen rose against the dollar earlier today after sources close to the White House told Reuters that a U.S.-China trade deal is unlikely this year, shattering investor hopes a partial agreement was imminent and spurring demand for safe havens. The yuan fell to a three-week low in onshore trade on worries the failure to reach a deal to roll back U.S. tariffs could further harm China’s stuttering economy. Political tensions between Beijing and Washington were also keeping investors on edge after a source told Reuters that U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign into law two bills intended to support anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. GBP stops the previous two day's downpour. Languishing support for the second referendum, upbeat polls for Conservatives stopped sellers off-late. European data indicated that the Union’s economy remains at risk of recession.

Today’s focus will be around GBP Inflation Report Hearings, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes & US Initial Jobless Claims.

20/ 11/ 2019

Dollar edges higher against the Rivals on U.S, China Trade in Focus

The dollar and the safe-haven yen found support today as a lack of clarity on U.S.-China trade talks kept investors cautious ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting. Moves were slight as jaded traders again weighed mixed messages on trade, with more upbeat reports offset by U.S. President Donald Trump delivering yet another warning of more tariffs if talks fail. The United States and China have been locked in tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have dented the global economy. Sterling edged down on Tuesday, but remained near a six-month high versus the euro on the back of a new poll reinforcing investors’ expectations the ruling Conservative Party will win a parliamentary majority in Britain’s election next month. If the Conservatives win a majority on Dec. 12, expectations are the House of Commons would approve the Brexit deal agreed with Brussels last month and Britain would exit the European Union on Jan. 31, ending three-and-a-half years of uncertainty.

It will be a busy day today with top tier data is being released from main markets such as China PBOC Interest Rate Decision, GBP Inflation Report Hearings, and EU Financial Stability Review & US FOMC Minutes.