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mask Week Ahead | Trade Tension will Retain the Spotlight

26/ 05/ 2019

Week Ahead | Trade Tension will Retain the Spotlight

The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as weak U.S. manufacturing activity data sparked worries the trade conflict with China may hurt the world's largest economy. The weaker-than-expected data, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, drove the dollar lower and added to a fall which began Thursday following a report that showed manufacturing activity hit its lowest level in almost a decade in May.

The reports suggested a sharp slowdown in U.S. economic growth is under way, which could affect the dollar's safe-haven status. The pound rose against dollar on Friday, after British Prime Minister Theresa May set out a departure date after failing to push through a Brexit divorce deal.

Trading was volatile as concerns rose that she is likely to be succeeded by a Eurosceptic leader, potentially increasing the chances of a 'no-deal' Brexit. The process to elect a new party leader will begin next month - markets are concerned that a tougher stance with the European Union might prompt investors to turn more negative on the outlook for the pound in the coming months.

These upcoming days the macroeconomic calendar will be quite light, as the most relevant release will be revisions of data already released. Central banks had nothing to say and would likely stay below the radar these upcoming days, but trade tensions will retain the spotlight. Risk sentiment will keep leaning the scale in dollar's favor.

mask Brexit and European Election Will Drive the Market

23/ 05/ 2019

Brexit and European Election Will Drive the Market

Brexit stole the show yesterday, leaving the EUR/USD pair confined to familiar levels.

US Federal Reserve released the Minutes of its latest meeting in the US afternoon but failed to surprise reaffirming the 'patient' stance. The statement was overshadowed ahead of the release by Powell's comments late Monday, indicating that policymakers are in no rush to make a move, even if the economy improves. The lack of stats left the markets to respond to trade war chatter and the FOMC meeting minutes released late on Wednesday.

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Alongside the stats, geopolitics will continue to be a factor through the day. Another consideration will be the Brexit and the EU Parliamentary elections that are expected to bring an early end to British Prime Minister Theresa May’s political career.


mask Risk Hit Again by US-China Trade Woes; Draghi & UK CPI Up Next

22/ 05/ 2019

Risk Hit Again by US-China Trade Woes; Draghi & UK CPI Up Next

The shared currency maintains the harsh tone against its American rival, having failed to preserve gains. The EUR/USD pair getting a temporary boost from Pound’s strength, this last jumping on news that UK PM Theresa May was offering a new Brexit deal and allowing Parliament to decide on a second referendum. 

The GBP/USD pair jumped to 1.2785 mid-US session following headlines indicating that UK PM May deal would offer a new Brexit option to the Parliament, also allow voting on a second referendum. The Brexit political chaos has been a significant drag for Sterling, further weighing after cross-party talks ended without an agreement.

UK Inflation and European politics to whipsaw the Pound ahead of the FED monetary policy meeting minutes later today.


mask Dollar Holds Awaiting Signals on Trade & Fed Policy

21/ 05/ 2019

Dollar Holds Awaiting Signals on Trade & Fed Policy

It was a dull start to the week for European currencies, which spent the day consolidating their recent losses. Risk-averse headlines dominated the news feeds, although most of them related to familiar issues, named the US-Sino trade war and Brexit, failing to provide a fresh catalyst. Minor data released in both economies failed to motivate market players, as the German PPI came in mixed.

The GBP/USD pair started the day correcting higher, but the Sterling was unable to hold on to gains, finishing the day unchanged at around 1.2720. The pound edged higher against dollar on Monday, as Britain's prime minister made a final effort to get a Brexit deal through parliament before she leaves office. After failing three times to get parliament's approval for her EU divorce deal, Theresa May said she would present a "new, bold offer" to lawmakers with "an improved package of measures" in a final attempt to secure a Brexit deal.

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